Global Threats Presentation – 2026

Eurasia

• Eastern Europe: Russia will likely make limited gains in Ukraine in 2026 but not force a Ukrainian surrender or negotiation.
• European Union: Increases in defense spending are very likely to introduce additional economic pressures inEU member states.
• Central Asian Markets: Central Asian nations will likely diversify export partners amidst the global competition over critical mineral supply chains.
• Central Asian Markets: Entrenched crime syndicates will probably undermine economic competition and investment opportunities, especially in the mining sector.
• European Union: The upcoming, union-wide immigration reforms are unlikely to meaningfully change net migration rates across the EU.
• United Kingdom: Unemployment and net migration will probably both fall in mid-2026, though theconnection between the two remains inconclusive.

Asia–Pacific

• China: China is most likely to prioritize political pressure and military drills around Taiwan rather than an invasion or blockade.
• Myanmar: Chinese investments in Burmese natural resources will likely continue despite the ongoing civil war in Myanmar.
• Myanmar: Pro-junta and anti-junta forces will probably remain locked in a stalemate.
• Southeast Asia: Cambodia and Thailand are likely to engage in low-intensity, protracted fighting along their border.

Africa, Middle East, and India

• Africa: China’s Belt and Road Initiative will likely take on an increasingly extractive nature, targeting critical minerals.  
• Middle East: Iran will probably strengthen its economic and military partnerships with Russia and China.
• Middle East: The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is likely to break in its second or third phase.
• Africa: The Islamic State will likely maintain a decentralized structure of loose cooperation.
• Africa: The Islamic State and Al Qaeda will probably continue to compete rather than cooperate.

Americas

• North America: Chinese land investments in the United States are unlikely to grow due to recent legislation.
• North America: Deportations will likely result in short-term price increases in the United States.
• North America: Canada will likely seek alternative economic partners considering tariffs.
• South America: US tariffs are very likely to encourage Brazil to further trade with China.
• Venezuela: Chavistas are likely to keep power in Venezuela.
• Caribbean: Violent crime rates are likely to increase despite the US military presence.
• Americas: Organized crime groups will likely adopt more tactics associated with terrorist organizations.

Technology

• Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: Drones will likely occupy a growing role in asymmetrical and conventional military operations.

• AI: Loosening regulations will likely increase the use of AI and drones for surveillance purposes.