title
Operation Epic Fury
A Four-Scenario Risk Analysis of the progression of the conflict in Iran and the Middle East.
summary.body
Confidence – Moderate: The information used in this report stems from high-quality, triangulated sources. Because of the volatile nature of the ongoing conflict, some information may change or become outdated.
Timeframe: 28 February 2026 – 28 May 2026.
Information Cutoff: 8 March 2026 – 15:30 UTC-5.
sections[0].heading
Key Takeaways
sections[0].body
- Operation Epic Fury reportedly killed multiple senior Iranian leaders, including the former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
- Both sides of the conflict have targeted military bases, government and civilian sites, and sites of high economic value.
- The conflict risks escalating into a regional war involving allies and proxy groups.
- If Iran’s state collapses, violence could spread throughout the Middle East.
sections[0].heading
Base Assumptions
sections[0].body
- No direct Russian or Chinese intervention.
- US-Israel cooperation continues.
- Congress does not block further US military action.
sections[0].heading
Sources
sections[0].body
- Official statements from Iranian, Israeli, US, Iraqi, and Hezbollah leadership.
- Corroborated OSINT imagery on social media platforms.
sections[0].heading
Glossary
sections[0].body
IRGC – The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is one Iran’s main military forces. The organization controls roughly 1/5 of Iran’s economy, wields political influence, and serves as the point of contact between the Islamic Republic and regional proxy groups.
sections[0].heading
Disclaimer
sections[0].body
The maps featured in this article were designed using Data wrapper. When applicable, the use of OpenStreetMap contributors’ map data (under ODblL license) is signaled within the map’s margins. The use of CIA data does not imply endorsement.
Context
According to the Department of Defense, the strikes during last year’s Operation Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer aimed to degrade the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. Iran has experienced multiple waves of protests over the Rial’s collapsing value since December and has responded to the demonstrations with security force deployments. US-Israeli military action follows the third round of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.
The Facts
According to US, Iranian, and Israeli official reporting, Operation Epic Fury has reportedly killed Ayatollah Khamenei and multiple senior regime and IRGC leaders. Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has since become Supreme Leader. Iranian media has reported thousands of strikes on large cities, small towns, oil refineries, and IRGC military installations across Iran. Global energy and gas prices have spiked since Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a transit site for over 20% of global petroleum supplies.
The White House’s official declarations have outlined strategic objectives as ending Iran’s ballistic missile program, preventing future nuclear-weapons development, and striking naval assets.
OSINT sources indicate ballistic missile exchanges between the US and Iran across the Middle East (MENA). The IRGC has also targeted civilian sites such as consulates, residential zones, refining sites in the Gulf States, and hotels. Israel has launched air strikes against the Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah, and the IRGC-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq has engaged in combat against “enemy” targets.
Analytical Unknowns
Official Iranian sources have indicated that IRGC units are operating in a semi-autonomous manner, though the extent of damage to Iranian command-and-control and governing infrastructure remains unconfirmed.
sections[0].heading
Threats Matrix
sections[0].body
|
Feature |
Best Case: Negotiation |
Status Quo: Aerial Campaign |
Wildcard: Ground War |
Worst Case: Collapse |
|
Summary |
Belligerent parties reach a negotiated settlement, ending hostilities. |
Airstrikes on Iran, Israel, and US allies continue, but the conflict does not escalate into a ground war. Proxy groups limit engagement beyond rocket strikes. |
US allies conduct a ground invasion of Iran. |
Iran falls into severe internal destabilization involving multiple armed threat actors. |
|
Primary Driver |
Disproportionate US/Israeli military strength relative to Iran. The costs of continuing hostilities outweigh the benefits. |
Iran, the United States, and/or Israel attempts to limit escalation and prevent a regional war. |
The United States commits to regime change in Iran.
|
Separatism within Iran. Fracturing amongst IRGC and clerical elites. |
|
Scenario Risk |
A settlement perceived as surrender triggers elite fracturing and collapse within Iran, enflaming regional risks of violence. |
Civilian and military sites across MENA remain at risk for air strikes. |
Ground operations destabilize Iran and trigger larger-scale retaliatory strikes. |
Separatist and Salafi-Jihadist groups exploit collapsing state authority and attempt to cross into neighboring countries. |
