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Introduction  

The 2024 Venezuelan presidential election has seen popular discontent with the Maduro regime explode into a wave of protests which have engulfed the nation. With a total death toll of at least 11 so far and more than 750 having been arrested, the Venezuelan government has responded to this movement using force. However, far from being a local issue, a closer analysis of these developments reveals a complex web of alliances involving international terrorism and a Cold War-esque competition for geopolitical influence.  

A protestor stomps on a campaign poster for Nicolas Maduro (DNUYZ)  

Background  

In 2013, Nicolas Maduro, the successor to the revolutionary movement founded by Hugo Chavez, won the Venezuelan presidency while running as the candidate for the United Socialist Party. Importantly, he espoused rhetoric targeted at what he claimed was the United States’ “imperialist” policies. His first term in office saw much economic hardship because of falling global oil prices, international sanctions, many of which had been imposed on his predecessor, Chavez (Congressional Research Service), and an overall drop in the amount of goods Venezuela exported.   

The popular discontent with the Maduro regime that economic downturn bred produced periodic attempts to remove the president from power. Flashpoints of this conflict include legal challenges by the opposition party between 2015 and 2017, boycotts of the 2018 election, an attempted coup d’etat in 2019, and the ongoing wave of protests which began on July 28th.  

The latter has included accusations by opposition party leader Edmundo Gonzales Urrutia, who ran on a liberal platform, that the election was fraudulent. The official results stated that he received 44% of the votes while Maduro received 51%. He instead claims to have received 6 million votes while Maduro only received 2.7 million and cites opposition members not being allowed to count votes along with United Socialist Party counters as evidence of an electoral miscount (CNN). United States Secretary of State Anthony J. Blinken has come forward to express his skepticism of the official electoral results, affirming that he believes that “the result of the election announced does not reflect the will of the Venezuelan people.” 

Far from being internationally isolated, the Maduro regime has close ties with China, Russia, and Iran. Both Russia and China have invested in and regularly buy petrol products from Venezuela. They also supply technological and military assistance, with Russia having routinely conducted joint military exercises with the nation since 2008 (Atlantic Council). Iran has also been allowed to invest heavily in Venezuelan petroleum refining and provide technical assistance. Finally, all these powers share a common rhetoric of anti-imperialism (VOA News).  

Nicholas Maduro meets with Vladimir Putin, 2019 (Reuters)  

Perhaps more surprising is Venezuela’s cooperation with terrorist and criminal networks. The regime cooperates with Hezbollah, FARC, and more, to promote narcoterrorism, or terrorism linked with explicit drugs, within and outside the borders of Venezuela. In 2020, Adel El Zabayar, a member of the Venezuelan National Assembly, was indicted by the United States Department of Justice “for allegedly working with Maduro and several top regime leaders in Venezuela on a narcoterrorism conspiracy that involved dissidents of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), drug cartels in Mexico, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Syria, and the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah” (Atlantic Council). 

Media Response 

Media from the United States has largely come out in support of the protestors and of Gonzales. The New York Times can be quoted as claiming the following:  

“The Carter Center, a leading pro-democracy organization, says Venezuela’s election violated the country’s own laws and was undemocratic… The only independent observer monitoring the polls in Venezuela said that Sunday’s vote for president did not meet international standards and was undemocratic, raising more questions about the legitimacy of the results.” 

RT News, a Russian network with close ties to the Putin regime, boasts headlines stating that this media attention is part of the “West attempting [a] media coup” and quotes Venezuelan Minister of Defense Vladimir Padrino as saying, “Nationwide protests over Maduro’s re-election are part of a US-backed plan.”  

Finally, the Venezuelan Ministry of Defense has released a statement on its website condemning the protests as violence committed by the “far right,” as “terrorism and sabotage,” and as “fascism at its highest expression.” In a similar vein to RT News, it also decries the protests as being “supported by North American imperialism.”  

Analysis 

When considering the media response and the Maduro regime’s policy of aligning itself with fellow anti-Western governments and terrorist actors, the protests begin to take on geopolitical significance.  

Cover of Cynthia J. Arnson’s Venezuela’s Authoritarian Allies: The Ties That Bind? 

China, Russia, and Iran all have a vested interest in keeping Maduro in power. His “anti-imperial” regime not only shares their rhetoric of resistance against the West, but also acts as an important foothold in the Western hemisphere for these powers as evidenced by their continued economic, technological, and military investment in Venezuela. These ties allow powers hostile to the United States to have a sort of outpost near their main geopolitical rival from where they could mount a military attack if they were to enter a state of open war.  

Reflecting the geopolitical interests of Russia, RT News rhetorically positions this conflict as one in which the United States and the West more broadly uses its media to attack and destabilize Venezuela. Padrino’s claims that the protestors were part of a far-right attempt to engage in terrorism and promote fascism as a part of American imperialism not only reflect these claims, but also employ the rhetorical strategy used by Maoist China and the Soviet Union era which consists of placing any opposition to the regime as a reactionary attempt at destroying the revolution. Whatever the case may be, these tactics benefit the rivals of the United States. 

The fear that the United States desires a destabilization of the Maduro regime may not be completely unfounded, as it is within its interests to eliminate the regime. Leaving aside the idea that there likely was a degree of electoral fraud, this desire would explain US Secretary of State Blinken’s comments concerning skepticism over the legitimacy of the election.  

Terrorist and criminal groups also have a vested interest in keeping Maduro in power, as he has been shown to be cooperative with them. It is also important to note that some of these groups, such as Hezbollah, have close ties with Iran. Thus, they may provide support to the current socialist government against the protests.