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Introduction

On Monday night, March 17^th, 2025, the ceasefire agreement signed between Israel and Hamas seemingly broke as Israel reinitiated bombardments of the northern, southern, and central governates of the Gaza Strip. These developments occurred on the tail of the breakdown of negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Cairo brokered by U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff.

Background

Three phases made up the planned ceasefire deal reached on January 15^th, 2025. The following is an overview of the planned conditions of each phase:

Phase 1

• Ceasefire to enter into effect at 8:30am (UTC+2) on January 15^th, 2025. The ceasefire entered into effect at 11:15am (UTC+2) on the same day after Hamas released the names of the first three Israeli captives to be released as a part of the deal.
• To last approximately 42 days, ending March 2^nd.
• Hamas will release 33 Israeli hostages, with three being released on the first day of the ceasefire. Israel will release 30 Palestinian prisoners for each Israeli civilian and 50 for each female Israeli soldier.
• Aid shall be allowed to enter the Gaza Strip and Palestinians in the Gaza Strip will be permitted to return home.
• Israeli forces will retreat from the populated areas of the Gaza Strip.
• All armed conflict in the Gaza Strip shall halt.

Phase 2

• Israeli troops withdraw from the Gaza Strip.
• Hamas withdraws from the Gaza Strip.
• All remaining Israeli hostages and a number of Palestinian prisoners (to be negotiated) will be released from detention.

Phase 3

• The two parties will exchange the bodies of deceased Israeli hostages for the bodies of deceased Palestinian fighters.
• The two parties will agree to a framework for a reconstruction plan in Gaza.
• Border checkpoints for circulation to and from Gaza will be reopened.

Egypt, the United States, and Qatar have served as moderators for the ceasefire talks.

Why did the Ceasefire Fall Apart?

On March 5^th, Israel violated the terms of the accord by restricting aid entering into the Gaza Strip. Both sides debated an extension of deadline for the implementation of phase 2 of the agreement until April 20^th, 42 days later than was originally proposed. Israel demanded, as part of this new deal, that Hamas liberate half of the remaining hostages.

Negotiations around the second phase of the agreement appear to have broken down on March 16^th. On March 13^th, the U.S. Special Envoy to Middle East went to Doha to negotiate with Israeli officials concerning the prolongation of the truce through Passover and Ramadan. The following day, Hamas delegates met with Egyptian officials in Cairo. Hamas also agreed to resume negotiations with Israel.

The Israeli government cites the refusal of Hamas to release the remaining hostages from captivity as the reason for resumed hostilities. According to Al Jazeera, Hamas members claimed on Telegram that Israel’s actions constituted a breach of the ceasefire.  

With the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office’s announcement that “Israel will, from now on, act against Hamas with increasing military strength,” hostilities can be expected to continue for the foreseeable future.